Israel’s October 27 Election Puts African Diplomatic Relations to the Test

Israel’s October 27 general election is attracting considerable attention across Africa, as governments assess how the outcome could affect diplomatic relations, security cooperation and economic partnerships amid growing tensions over the war in Gaza.

The election comes at a time when Israel’s relations with African countries are increasingly shaped by differing positions on the Palestinian question, international law and national interests.

While some African governments have intensified criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza, others have maintained diplomatic, commercial and security relationships with the country.

Recent opinion polls suggest a closely contested race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and the opposition bloc. Neither side is currently projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, raising the possibility of prolonged coalition negotiations after the election.

The policies of the next Israeli government, particularly its approach to Gaza and Palestinian statehood, could significantly influence the country’s efforts to maintain and expand its partnerships across Africa.

South Africa Leads Criticism of Israel

South Africa has emerged as one of Israel’s strongest critics on the African continent since the war in Gaza began in October 2023.

The South African government instituted proceedings against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention. Israel has rejected the allegations.

In January 2024, the court issued provisional measures directing Israel to take steps to prevent acts prohibited under the convention. However, those measures did not constitute a final determination that genocide had occurred.

In November 2023, South Africa’s National Assembly also adopted a motion calling for the closure of Israel’s embassy and the suspension of diplomatic relations.

Although the motion did not automatically implement those measures, it reflected the strength of political opposition to Israel’s military campaign.

Other African countries have adopted different approaches. Chad recalled its ambassador to Israel in November 2023, while several governments have continued maintaining relations despite criticism of the war.

Morocco Continues to Strengthen Relations

Morocco has taken a different diplomatic path, continuing to develop its relationship with Israel despite public demonstrations opposing normalisation.

The two countries restored diplomatic relations in 2020 under a US-backed arrangement linked to Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

On September 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar met Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita in New York at a trilateral summit hosted by US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz.

The parties reaffirmed plans to upgrade their diplomatic missions to embassies, appoint ambassadors and strengthen bilateral engagement.

They also announced plans to conclude investment protection and double-taxation agreements before the end of 2026, expand air connections involving Moroccan airlines and arrange reciprocal high-level visits.

The commitments indicate continued efforts to deepen cooperation, although their announcement does not mean all the proposed measures have been implemented.

Idowu Johnson, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Ibadan, said Africa’s diverse political and diplomatic interests make it difficult to predict a unified response to Israel’s election.

He noted that the next Israeli government’s position on Palestinian statehood would influence the extent to which African countries pursue cooperation with Israel in agriculture, trade, security and technology.

African Union Divisions Remain Unresolved

Divisions over Israel’s treatment of Palestinians have also affected its relationship with the African Union.

In 2021, the AU Commission chairperson accredited Israel’s representative to the organisation, a decision that prompted objections from several member states.

The following year, the AU Assembly established a committee of heads of state and government to consult on Israel’s observer status.

The disagreement continued into 2023, when the organisation moved to suspend Israel’s accreditation pending further consideration.

The dispute reflects broader divisions among African governments over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the appropriate diplomatic response.

A new Israeli administration could attempt to ease these tensions. However, any progress would depend on its policies and the willingness of AU member states to reconsider their positions.

Security Cooperation Could Survive Political Tensions

Despite diplomatic disagreements, security cooperation remains an important component of Israel’s relationships with some African governments.

Israeli companies have pursued defence and security-related partnerships involving equipment, surveillance technology and training. However, the scale and nature of these arrangements differ from one country to another.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has recently demonstrated an interest in expanding cooperation with Israel.

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi visited Israel on August 31 and September 1, meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog.

Discussions covered security, defence, agriculture, infrastructure, energy and advanced technology.

The visit followed memorandums of understanding signed on July 27, with Congolese officials indicating that the meetings would review existing agreements and explore additional investment opportunities, including projects connected to the Lobito Corridor.

Although both sides expressed interest in strengthening their strategic partnership, the meetings did not establish that a specific new security contract had been concluded.

For African governments confronting armed groups and other security threats, foreign partnerships can provide access to equipment, intelligence and technical expertise.

Nevertheless, diplomatic disagreements over Gaza may influence these relationships differently, depending on each country’s priorities and domestic political circumstances.

Somaliland Recognition Triggers Backlash

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on December 26, 2025, has further complicated its diplomatic engagement across Africa.

The decision made Israel the first country to recognise Somaliland, a self-governing territory that Somalia considers part of its sovereign territory.

Somalia and other critics condemned the move, arguing that it threatened Somalia’s territorial integrity. The announcement also triggered demonstrations in Somalia and Somaliland.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera that his country would not accept an Israeli presence on its territory under any circumstances.

He also alleged that Israel planned to establish a naval base in Berbera and use the city’s airport, arguing that the move was intended to expand Israel’s strategic reach towards the Gulf states and Iran.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project, 110 demonstrations directly linked to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland had been recorded by the time of its February 2026 Africa overview.

Only seven demonstrations supported the recognition, and all took place in Somaliland. The remaining demonstrations opposed it.

The figures relate specifically to the Somaliland recognition controversy and should not be interpreted as a comprehensive measurement of African public opinion on Israel.

Africa analyst Hossamaldeen Ibrahim said public opposition could constrain governments seeking to maintain strategic relationships with Israel.

He argued that the next Israeli government could deepen cooperation with selected African partners, particularly in North Africa and around the Red Sea, or face increased diplomatic difficulties if its policies continued to generate opposition linked to the Gaza war.

The Somaliland dispute illustrates how diplomatic decisions perceived as challenging national sovereignty can provoke strong public reactions.

However, opposition to the recognition does not necessarily mean African governments will abandon their existing security or commercial agreements with Israel.

Trade and Agricultural Technology Offer Opportunities

Beyond security, Israel has sought to expand its African partnerships through trade, agriculture, irrigation, water management, healthcare and technological development.

These sectors offer opportunities for African countries seeking foreign investment and technical expertise to support economic development.

However, commercial cooperation does not necessarily indicate public approval of Israel’s policies towards Palestinians.

Zambia is among the countries seeking closer engagement with Israel.

Israel opened a resident embassy in Lusaka in August 2025, ending a 52-year absence. The two countries have identified agriculture, water management, healthcare, education and technology as potential areas for cooperation.

Some analysts have suggested that Israel’s renewed engagement with Zambia could help it cultivate partners capable of balancing South Africa’s influence in the region.

However, this remains an interpretation rather than an established explanation for the relationship, as Zambia also has its own economic and development priorities.

Professor Iwebunor Okwechime of Obafemi Awolowo University said South Africa’s position towards Israel must be understood within its historical experience of apartheid.

He noted that Israel’s historical relationship with South Africa’s former apartheid government remains an important factor shaping contemporary relations between the two countries.

According to Okwechime, the historical background helps explain why South Africa continues to take a strong position on the Palestinian question.

Election Could Shape Israel’s Future in Africa

As Israelis prepare to vote on October 27, African governments face the challenge of balancing economic and security interests with domestic public opinion, support for Palestinian rights and commitments to international law.

For Israel, the election presents an opportunity to reconsider its diplomatic approach and potentially ease tensions with countries critical of its conduct in Gaza.

However, any significant improvement in relations will depend largely on the policies adopted by the next government and the responses of African leaders.

Analysts caution that a change in political leadership may not automatically transform public attitudes towards Israel, particularly in countries where historical experiences and the Palestinian question remain central to foreign policy debates.

The election could therefore determine whether Israel strengthens its strategic partnerships across Africa or faces further diplomatic isolation in parts of the continent.

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