The United Nations has warned that the world is entering a “danger zone of extreme weather” as a powerful El Niño event intensifies across the globe.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the current El Niño could become the strongest recorded in more than 70 years and may persist until at least February 2027.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean when changes in wind patterns cause unusually warm water to move eastward. The resulting release of heat into the atmosphere can disrupt weather patterns around the world.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing event as a “supersized” El Niño, warning that the planet was entering “uncharted waters” as global temperatures continue to rise because of human-caused climate change.
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have risen sharply in recent months. Temperatures in the organisation’s key monitoring region have been more than 2°C above average, while forecasts suggest they could approach 4°C above average later this year.
If that happens, scientists say it could become the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950.
The extreme warming is not limited to the ocean’s surface. Temperatures beneath the Pacific have been recorded at more than 8°C above average in some areas.
Drought and Wildfire Risks
The WMO expects El Niño to significantly alter rainfall patterns over the coming months.
Large parts of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern South America are expected to experience below-average rainfall, increasing the risks of drought and wildfires.
In Indonesia, wildfires have already burned more than 107,000 hectares during the current dry season. Authorities have deployed cloud-seeding aircraft and additional resources to help contain the fires.
The expected reduction in rainfall is also affecting international trade. Panama plans to reduce the number of vessels using the Panama Canal by more than 10% because of concerns over lower water levels.
The canal handles about 14,000 ships annually and generates billions of dollars in revenue for Panama.
Increased Flooding and Typhoon Threat
While some regions face drought, others are expected to receive heavier-than-normal rainfall.
Eastern Africa, southern Brazil and parts of the southern United States are among areas facing an increased risk of flooding.
China is also preparing for an active typhoon season, with experts linking the expected storms partly to the influence of the strong El Niño.
Peru, Ecuador and parts of Brazil are particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides because of their location along the eastern Pacific.
The United States has also announced plans to deploy the USNS Comfort to Peru to provide medical assistance and technical support as the El Niño event reaches its peak.
Scientists Warn of Wider Climate Impacts
Scientists say the effects of El Niño are occurring against a backdrop of long-term global warming, which could make extreme weather impacts more severe.
Australia is also preparing for the consequences, particularly marine heatwaves that could threaten fish populations, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems.
The WMO has launched a major effort to distribute forecasts and early warnings to vulnerable communities around the world.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño could deliver a “massive blow” to communities and economies if preparations are inadequate.
Experts, however, stress that the situation should encourage preparedness rather than panic, with early-warning systems, emergency planning and medical support considered crucial to reducing deaths, displacement and economic losses.
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