Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s chances of winning another term could be threatened by growing divisions within his Likud party, as members vote to select candidates ahead of Israel’s October general election.
Analysts say many Likud members are moving further to the political right, even as a significant number of the party’s traditional voters increasingly favour a more centrist government.
A survey by Agam Labs found that 54.9% of Likud voters want a more centrist government than Netanyahu’s current coalition. By contrast, only about one-third of Likud members who are taking part in the primary process support a centre-right government.
Likud’s popularity has also fallen sharply since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, with polls suggesting the party could lose about one-third of its parliamentary seats.
Netanyahu Seeks Moderate Candidates
Netanyahu has been trying to bring more moderate candidates into the party’s candidate list in an effort to appeal to voters who have moved away from Likud.
“I intend to deepen the unity within us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement, adding that he wanted to establish a broad and stable national government.
However, former and current senior Likud figures say the effort to regain support from moderate voters is proving difficult.
Dispute Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Service
The issue of military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews has further exposed divisions within Likud.
More than 80% of Likud voters surveyed said they want an increase in the number of ultra-Orthodox people serving in Israel’s military. Support for such an increase was lower among Likud members, at around 65%.
The disagreement has become more sensitive during the Gaza war, as many non-Orthodox Israelis question why they should carry a greater share of the military burden.
Undecided Voters Could Decide Election
Around 20% of Israel’s electorate remains undecided, according to the survey. Researchers say many of these voters are former Likud supporters who have become disillusioned with the party.
Political scientist Gayil Talshir of the Hebrew University said these undecided voters could ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
With Likud divided between its increasingly right-wing membership and voters seeking a more centrist direction, Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to secure another term as prime minister.

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