Pakistan-Administered Kashmir Election Hinges on Disputed Refugee Seats Amid Unrest

Pakistan-administered Kashmir is heading into a crucial legislative election overshadowed by months of deadly unrest and a growing political dispute over 12 assembly seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees living elsewhere in Pakistan.

The elections for the 45-member Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly are being held in phases due to security concerns. While voting began in the Mirpur division on July 27, polling in Muzaffarabad is scheduled for August 2, and the conflict-hit Poonch division will vote on August 10.

The controversy centers on 12 reserved seats allocated to refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir. Protest leaders from the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) argue that only residents living within AJK should elect lawmakers, calling for the refugee seats to be abolished.

The protests, which initially focused on demands for subsidized flour, lower electricity costs, and greater economic support, have expanded into a broader campaign for political reforms. Clashes between protesters and security forces since June have reportedly claimed nearly 40 lives, while internet blackouts, road closures, and arrests have disrupted daily life across the region.

AJK authorities insist the refugee seats are protected under the territory's constitution and cannot be removed without a constitutional amendment. Former judges and government officials argue that the seats have historical and legal significance dating back to the establishment of AJK and represent Kashmiris displaced during the 1947 partition.

However, JAAC leaders maintain that the arrangement undermines democratic representation by allowing people living outside the territory to influence its government.

Political analysts say the dispute has also renewed debate over the level of autonomy enjoyed by Pakistan-administered Kashmir, with critics arguing that Islamabad's military and federal institutions wield greater influence than the territory's elected leaders.

The election comes against the backdrop of the unresolved Kashmir dispute, with experts noting that the refugee seats remain central to Pakistan's longstanding position that it represents the interests of the entire former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir.

Despite the ongoing tensions, authorities have urged voters to participate peacefully, while JAAC has called for an election boycott until its key demands are addressed.

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