Armenia votes amid growing pressure from Russia over pro-West shift

Armenians went to the polls on Sunday in a closely watched parliamentary election that could determine whether the country continues moving closer to the European Union or returns to deeper alignment with Russia.

The vote comes at a tense moment for the South Caucasus nation, which has been steadily shifting its foreign policy westward under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, while still relying heavily on Russia as a key trading partner.

High stakes over Europe vs Russia direction

Pashinyan, who has led Armenia since 2018, has promoted closer ties with Europe, including steps toward eventual EU membership and peace negotiations with neighbouring Azerbaijan.

However, his popularity has declined sharply, partly due to the 2023 loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that was formerly home to around 100,000 ethnic Armenians before Azerbaijan took control.

Opposition groups argue that Armenia should restore stronger ties with Russia, claiming it is essential for national security and economic stability.

Russia applies economic pressure

Ahead of the election, Moscow increased pressure on Yerevan through a series of trade restrictions, including bans on Armenian exports such as flowers, water, fruit, vegetables, and alcoholic goods.

Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner, accounting for roughly 36% of its foreign trade, giving Moscow significant economic leverage.

Officials and analysts say Russia’s strategy is aimed at influencing public opinion by highlighting the economic risks of drifting toward the West.

Divided political landscape

Prime Minister Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is leading in polls with about 32% support, but a large portion of voters remain undecided or distrustful of all political leaders.

The main opposition includes former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, both of whom advocate restoring closer ties with Moscow.

Billionaire businessman Samvel Karapetyan, campaigning through intermediaries while under house arrest, also represents a key challenger.

EU hopes vs economic reality

While Pashinyan has pushed a “Real Armenia” vision focused on peace with Azerbaijan and European integration, critics argue that EU membership remains distant and uncertain.

The European Union has responded by offering financial assistance and accusing Russia of using economic pressure as political leverage.

A critical decision ahead

As voting continues, Armenians face a difficult choice: maintain the current pro-European direction despite economic risks, or return to closer cooperation with Russia in exchange for stability and trade benefits.

The final results are expected to shape Armenia’s geopolitical future for years to come.