Armed groups linked to Boko Haram and ISWAP are regaining strength across the Lake Chad Basin, raising fresh security concerns for communities in northeastern Nigeria and neighbouring countries.
Security analysts say the resurgence follows years of weak governance, poverty, displacement, and gaps in regional military coordination, despite ongoing counterterrorism operations.
The development comes days after Nigerian and United States forces reportedly killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as a senior ISIL-linked commander operating around Lake Chad. Experts, however, warn that the operation may only temporarily disrupt militant activities.
Analysts told Al Jazeera that Boko Haram used the intense focus on ISWAP to quietly rebuild its networks, recruit fighters, and resume attacks in parts of Borno State and surrounding border regions.
According to security researcher Nimi Princewill, both factions have adapted to military pressure and continue exploiting porous borders connecting Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.
Experts also noted that worsening insecurity in the Sahel region, especially around Mali, has created easier movement routes for armed groups and weapons trafficking across West Africa.
Communities in the Lake Chad region continue to face severe humanitarian hardship, with millions displaced and thousands of schools shut due to violence. Aid agencies say many civilians are trapped between insurgent attacks and limited government presence.
Political analyst Chris Ogunmodede said insurgent groups are benefiting from what he described as an “economy of violence,” including kidnapping, smuggling, robbery, and illegal taxation around Lake Chad islands.
Researchers further warned that unemployment, lack of education, and failed reintegration programmes are pushing some former fighters back into militant groups.
Data from humanitarian agencies indicate that nearly three million people remain displaced across the Lake Chad Basin, while humanitarian funding for affected communities remains critically low.
Security consultant Abiola Sadiq warned that militant groups could intensify attacks ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, possibly expanding operations beyond their traditional strongholds in the Northeast.
The report also highlighted fears that rival extremist factions may launch retaliatory attacks following the killing of senior commanders in recent military operations.
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