Icelanders are voting on Saturday in a closely contested referendum on whether the country should restart negotiations to join the European Union, more than a decade after previous accession talks were suspended.
The referendum comes as Iceland faces rising living costs, currency instability and growing security concerns in the Arctic. Russia’s war in Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats involving neighbouring Greenland have also renewed debate over Iceland’s security position.
Opinion polls suggest a very tight contest. One recent Gallup poll found that 51.6 percent opposed restarting EU negotiations, while 48.4 percent supported the proposal. Another survey showed 51.3 percent backing the talks.
Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, whose Social Democratic Party supports closer ties with the EU, has said her government will respect the result.
A “yes” vote would not mean immediate EU membership. Instead, Iceland would begin negotiations with Brussels, potentially lasting several years, before holding another referendum on whether to formally join the bloc.
Supporters argue that EU membership could bring economic benefits, including a more stable currency, lower inflation, fewer customs barriers and access to EU development funds. Iceland could also eventually adopt the euro.
However, opponents are particularly concerned about the country’s fishing industry, which remains an important part of the economy. EU membership would require Iceland to follow the bloc’s Common Fisheries Policy, raising fears over fishing quotas, foreign competition and Iceland’s control over its own waters.
Iceland, a country of about 395,000 people, already has access to much of the EU single market through its membership of the European Economic Area and Schengen Area. This has made the economic case for joining the EU less straightforward than for some other candidate countries.
Security is another major factor. Iceland is a founding member of NATO but has no standing armed forces and has traditionally relied heavily on the United States for defence.
Analysts say uncertainty over US policy and increasing Russian activity in the Arctic have encouraged some Icelanders to view EU membership as an additional source of political and economic protection.
For Iceland’s fishing sector, however, control over fisheries remains a key red line. Experts say that even if voters approve restarting negotiations, Iceland is unlikely to join the EU unless it can secure strong guarantees protecting its fishing interests.

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