China’s Investment Inflows to Nigeria Drop 41% Despite $20bn Pledge

China's capital inflows into Nigeria declined by 40.9 percent in the first quarter of 2026, despite the Federal Government's announcement that Chinese investors had pledged more than $20 billion in investments across key sectors of the economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' Capital Importation Report for Q1 2026, capital imported from China dropped to $5.55 million, down from $9.39 million recorded during the same period in 2025. The figure also fell from $6.43 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting weaker Chinese investment on both yearly and quarterly bases.

The decline comes nearly a year after the government announced that it had secured over $20 billion in investment commitments from Chinese investors in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, steel production, automotive manufacturing, and energy.

Officials had said the planned investments would boost food security, create jobs, strengthen electricity generation, and position Nigeria as a leading manufacturing hub in Africa. However, the latest figures indicate that many of those commitments have yet to materialize as actual capital inflows.

China's share of Nigeria's total capital importation also declined from 0.17 percent in Q1 2025 to 0.05 percent in Q1 2026, despite Nigeria recording a sharp increase in overall foreign investment.

Data from the NBS showed that Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in total capital importation during the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

Portfolio investment remained the largest source of capital, accounting for 95.09 percent of total inflows, while foreign direct investment contributed just 1.3 percent.

The banking sector received the highest share of capital inflows, followed by the financing sector and the manufacturing industry.

The United Kingdom remained Nigeria's largest source of foreign capital, followed by the United States, South Africa, Mauritius, and the United Arab Emirates. China did not rank among the country's top five sources of capital during the quarter.

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