Oil prices climbed sharply on Wednesday as renewed attacks on shipping in the Middle East raised concerns over the prospects of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring stability to global energy markets.
Brent crude futures rose more than 2 percent overnight, reaching about $89.61 per barrel, roughly 24 percent higher than levels recorded before the US-Israel war with Iran began in late February.
Market analysts said uncertainty surrounding diplomatic negotiations between Iran and Oman is increasing pressure on oil prices. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said investors still hope for a deal but are becoming increasingly sceptical as negotiations continue without clear progress.
The renewed tensions follow attacks on shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where Yemen's internationally recognised government accused the Iran-aligned Houthis of killing six people in missile attacks on a commercial vessel.
US Central Command also said it attacked and disabled a Panama-flagged cargo vessel after it allegedly attempted to break a US blockade of Iranian ports.
The Strait of Hormuz remains critical to global energy supplies. Before the conflict, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through the waterway each day, representing roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies.
However, maritime traffic has fallen dramatically. Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that only 10 vessels crossed the strait on Monday, compared with approximately 130 daily crossings before the war.
Iran has insisted that the strait will remain closed until the United States agrees to conditions including war reparations and the lifting of sanctions. Qatar, meanwhile, said talks between Oman and Iran had reached an advanced stage and called for the waterway to be reopened as soon as possible.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil flows through the strait had recovered to about 9 million barrels per day on a seven-day average. However, independent oil-market analysts questioned the figure, estimating that the recent peak was closer to 7 million barrels per day.
The US Energy Information Administration expects Middle Eastern oil production to remain below pre-conflict levels until early 2027 and forecasts Brent crude to average around $87 per barrel in 2026.
Analysts say oil prices are likely to remain supported around $85–$90 per barrel unless diplomatic negotiations produce significant progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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