Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is maintaining a slim lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new poll.
A Quaest survey published on Friday showed Lula receiving 43 percent support in a potential runoff against Bolsonaro, who had 40 percent. With a two-percentage-point margin of error, the result is considered a statistical tie.
The latest figures show the race tightening. An earlier Quaest poll conducted on August 5 gave Lula a five-point advantage, with 44 percent compared with Bolsonaro’s 39 percent.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 31 percent. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4 percent, while Romeu Zema polled at 2 percent.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, if no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes in the first round, the two leading candidates advance to a runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has become the leading figure of Brazil’s political right after his father was barred from seeking office.
Jair Bolsonaro was declared ineligible after Brazil’s top electoral court found that he had abused his political power while in office. He was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election.
The Quaest poll was conducted from August 10 to 13 among 2,004 people and was commissioned by Brazilian media group Globo.
Lula, 80, formally launched his re-election campaign on August 2, seeking a historic fourth non-consecutive term. During the campaign launch, he presented himself as a defender of Brazil’s sovereignty amid growing tensions with the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Lula has also pledged to strengthen Brazil’s defence capabilities and protect the country’s rare-earth reserves and other strategic minerals from foreign control.
With the election now two months away, the latest polling indicates a highly competitive contest, although Lula continues to hold a narrow advantage over Bolsonaro.
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