Italy’s Population Set to Fall by Nearly 4 Million by 2050, ISTAT Warns

Italy’s population is projected to decline by nearly four million people by 2050, raising concerns about the country’s economy, labour force and welfare system as the proportion of elderly citizens continues to grow.

Italy’s national statistics agency, ISTAT, said in its latest demographic projections that the country’s resident population would fall from 58.9 million at the beginning of 2025 to about 55 million by 2050.

The decline is expected to continue, with Italy’s population projected to reach approximately 45.8 million by 2080.

The demographic changes are being driven largely by persistently low birth rates and an ageing population. Births in Italy have fallen steadily since 2008 and dropped to around 355,000 last year, the lowest level recorded since the country’s unification in 1861.

ISTAT expects annual births to remain broadly stable until 2030 before declining further to about 335,000 by 2050.

At the same time, deaths are expected to increase significantly. The number of annual deaths, which stood at roughly 652,000 last year, is projected to peak at around 869,000 in 2058 as the large post-war generation reaches old age.

The share of people aged 65 and above is expected to rise from 24.7% of the population in 2025 to 34.5% by 2050.

Meanwhile, the proportion of working-age people between 15 and 64 is projected to fall from 63.4% to 55.3% over the same period.

ISTAT warned that the combination of a shrinking workforce and a growing number of pensioners would create significant challenges for Italy’s economy and welfare system.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made increasing Italy’s birth rate a government priority since taking office in 2022. However, efforts to reverse the country’s demographic decline have so far produced limited results.

The population decline is also expected to vary significantly across Italy. Southern regions, which are generally poorer and already facing population losses, are projected to experience the sharpest decline.

Southern Italy’s population is expected to fall from 19.7 million in 2025 to around 16.7 million by 2050, while central and northern regions are forecast to experience more moderate declines.

The projections highlight the growing demographic pressures facing Italy and the potential long-term impact on its economy, labour market, pensions and public services.

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