Record El Niño Raises Flood Threat Across East Africa, Asia

A record-strength El Niño weather pattern is expected to trigger severe flooding, disease outbreaks and food insecurity across parts of East Africa and Asia, humanitarian organisations have warned.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) said countries including Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan face the greatest risk as they continue to battle existing humanitarian crises.

According to the US Climate Prediction Center, there is an 81 percent chance that the current El Niño will become one of the strongest since 1950, with its peak expected between October and December 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed that El Niño conditions have already developed and are likely to intensify in the coming months.

In Somalia, heavy rains have already caused flooding in Mogadishu, while Kenya has activated its national disaster preparedness plan ahead of expected heavy rainfall later this year. Bangladesh has also recorded deadly floods and landslides in Rohingya refugee camps, leaving thousands displaced.

Experts warn that the weather phenomenon could reduce rice production across South Asia and East Africa, worsening food shortages and increasing prices. Rising fertiliser costs linked to global geopolitical tensions may further compound the crisis.

Aid agencies are urging governments and international donors to invest in disaster preparedness and early response measures to reduce the impact on vulnerable communities before the worst of the flooding begins.

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