Germany Holds State Elections as AfD Continues to Gain Strength

Voters in Germany’s capital, Berlin, and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are heading to the polls on Sunday in regional elections closely watched for their potential impact on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his governing coalition.

The elections come just two weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) defeated Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the key state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD narrowly missed an outright majority in that election.

The setback has increased pressure on Merz, who has been in office for about 16 months. Recent polling cited by Al Jazeera suggests his approval rating has fallen to around 14 percent, while disagreements with coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), have complicated efforts to advance economic and social welfare reforms.

About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Berlin, while nearly 1.3 million voters can cast ballots in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polling stations opened at 8am local time and are scheduled to close at 6pm.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the main contest is between the governing SPD and the AfD. State Premier Manuela Schwesig is seeking to retain power, while former radio presenter Leif-Erik Holm is leading the AfD campaign.

According to public broadcaster ZDF, the SPD was polling at 37 percent, narrowly ahead of the AfD at 36 percent. The CDU was polling at about 6 percent, putting it close to the 5-percent threshold required to remain represented in the state parliament.

In Berlin, the governing CDU is facing a close contest with the left-wing Die Linke party, which has campaigned on measures to address the city’s housing crisis and has attracted significant support among younger voters.

The regional elections are being closely followed beyond Germany because of the AfD’s recent electoral gains. The party has described its victory in Saxony-Anhalt as a possible step towards competing for national power in the 2029 federal election.

The results of Sunday’s votes could therefore provide another indication of Germany’s changing political landscape and add further pressure on Chancellor Merz and his CDU.