Australia’s Deaths Expected to Outnumber Births by 2060s

Australia is projected to record more deaths than births by the 2060s, according to a new government report.

The latest Intergenerational Report, released by Australia’s Treasury on Monday, forecasts that the country’s population will reach 39.3 million by 2065–66. This is 1.8 million fewer than the projection made in the previous report in 2023.

The Treasury expects Australia’s population to grow by an average of 0.9 percent annually over the next four decades, compared with 1.4 percent during the previous 40 years.

The report also projects that the number of Australians aged 85 and above will triple by 2065–66, while the fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.34. According to the Treasury, immigration will account for all population growth as the number of births declines.

Despite the demographic challenges, the government expects Australia’s economy to more than double in size by the mid-2060s, driven partly by productivity gains from artificial intelligence and increased participation by women and older people in the workforce.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia has significant advantages in dealing with demographic changes but warned that the country could not afford to become complacent.

Meanwhile, the Business Council of Australia questioned the government’s long-term economic projections, particularly its expectation that artificial intelligence will help raise productivity growth to 1.2 percent.

The council said weak productivity growth has already affected living standards, with real gross domestic product per person nearly $2,000 lower than projected in the 2023 report.

The demographic trend means Australia is expected to face an increasingly ageing population and greater reliance on migration to sustain population growth in the coming decades.

• Tweet
• Share
• Share
• Share
• Share