The United States has announced a new round of sanctions targeting Iran and dozens of international entities accused of doing business with Tehran, in what Washington has called an “economic D-Day.”
The sanctions, officially named “Operation Economic Outcast,” are aimed at pressuring Iran to return to negotiations and accept US demands, including giving up its claims over the Strait of Hormuz and making concessions on its nuclear programme.
However, experts say the measures are unlikely to force the Iranian government to surrender.
Analysts argue that the new economic pressure reflects frustration within the Trump administration after months of military action failed to produce the quick victory Washington had expected.
Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy said the return to economic pressure shows that military force had failed to achieve Washington’s political objectives.
Experts also noted that the prolonged conflict has placed significant pressure on the United States. US stocks of missile interceptors have reportedly fallen, while military resources and aircraft carriers have been redirected to the Iran conflict.
Iran, meanwhile, has used missiles and drones to strike oil and gas infrastructure across the region and has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has contributed to higher fuel prices, including in the United States.
Why China remains largely untouched
The US Treasury announced sanctions against about 60 individuals and entities involved in business with Iran, but it did not target major Chinese banks or other major players involved in Iranian oil exports.
Around 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports reportedly go to China, generating billions of dollars for Tehran.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the difficulty of directly targeting China, asking why Washington would want to “blow up the global financial system.”
Analysts therefore believe the sanctions may be intended partly as a warning to companies and individuals dealing with Iran rather than as a measure capable of immediately changing Tehran’s policies.
Sanctions may hurt ordinary Iranians
The new measures expand restrictions into areas including digital assets, gold, technology, aviation and shipping.
Experts warn that these sanctions could worsen economic conditions for ordinary Iranians, who are already facing shortages of medicines, higher fuel prices and a weakening currency.
Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute said economic hardship does not necessarily translate into political capitulation. He argued that Iran could respond to increased pressure by escalating rather than surrendering.
Jamal Abdi of the National Iranian American Council said the administration may be trying to move away from direct military confrontation while presenting the sanctions as a new form of pressure.
Political pressure on Trump
The prolonged war has also damaged public support for President Donald Trump. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by Al Jazeera, only 31 percent of Americans support the war, while 33 percent approve of Trump’s performance.
With the US midterm elections approaching, analysts believe Iran may calculate that Trump will become increasingly reluctant to prolong the conflict.
George Washington University professor Sina Azodi said Iran could therefore choose to withstand the economic pressure and wait for Washington to offer more favourable terms.
In summary: Experts believe the new sanctions are more likely to increase economic suffering in Iran than force Tehran to surrender. They also see the move as evidence of the limits of US military power after months of conflict.
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