Latvia Holds Election Amid Russia Security Concerns and Rising Living Costs

Voters in Latvia have gone to the polls in a parliamentary election dominated by concerns over national security, rising living costs and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Polling stations opened at 5:00 GMT on Saturday and are scheduled to close at 17:00 GMT. About 1.5 million people are eligible to vote in the country’s 11th parliamentary election since it regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

The election is the first major electoral test for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, who took office in May after his predecessor resigned following criticism over drone incursions from Ukraine.

Kulbergs’ right-wing United List party is polling at around 20 percent. However, the decline of two parties in his current coalition could make negotiations over the formation of a new government difficult.

Latvia’s political system is highly fragmented, with coalition governments common and parties rarely securing more than 20 percent of the vote. Fourteen electoral lists are contesting this election, although opinion polls suggest that only about seven may cross the five-percent threshold required to enter parliament.

The campaign has focused heavily on rising living costs, low wages, pressure on the healthcare system and Latvia’s declining population.

Security concerns linked to Russia have also featured prominently. Latvia has strongly supported Ukraine and has significantly increased defence spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with defence expenditure now approaching five percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

Most major Latvian parties support Ukraine. However, the populist Sovereign Power party, which says it wants Ukraine to win but argues that funds spent supporting Kyiv should instead be used domestically, is expected to perform strongly.

Latvia First, a pro-Ukraine populist nationalist party, is also polling at around nine percent and could potentially become a coalition partner. The pro-European social democratic Progressives are polling at about six percent.

Despite political fragmentation, the election is not expected to significantly alter Latvia’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian foreign policy direction.

Latvia is the poorest of the three Baltic states, while ethnic Russians account for roughly one-quarter of its citizens. Their voting patterns in this election are expected to be influenced more by economic and social issues than by ethnic identity.

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