Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in the latest opinion polls ahead of Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026.
Two polls released on Monday showed the two leading candidates running almost level in potential runoff scenarios. If neither candidate secures more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the top two will face each other in a runoff on October 25.
A Quaest poll put Flávio Bolsonaro at 42 percent, compared with 41 percent for Lula in a hypothetical runoff.
Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula with 46 percent and Bolsonaro with 45 percent.
The latest figures represent a narrowing of the gap compared with a Quaest poll conducted on August 5, which showed Lula leading Bolsonaro by five percentage points, 44 percent to 39 percent.
Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, launched his re-election campaign on August 2. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is challenging him from the political right.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was previously ruled ineligible to contest elections after Brazil’s top electoral court found that he had abused his political power while in office. He was also later convicted in a separate case involving a plot to overturn his defeat in the 2022 election.
The election campaign is also taking place amid tensions between Brazil and the United States. The US imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July, which Lula criticised as economic pressure aimed at influencing the election.
Lula is currently in New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly. On Monday, he also met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, with the two discussing issues including the rising cost of living.
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