UK forecasters have warned that the 2026 El Niño event could become the strongest in more than a century, potentially causing severe weather disruptions around the world.
The UK Met Office said sea-surface temperatures associated with the phenomenon could rise by more than 3°C (5.4°F) in the coming months, far above the typical 1–2°C increase seen during El Niño events.
Adam Scaife, head of the Met Office’s long-range forecasting, described the forecast as “unprecedented”, saying he had never seen such an intense El Niño signal in the organisation’s forecasts.
El Niño occurs when unusually warm waters develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, altering weather patterns across the globe. Its effects can include drought, extreme heat, heavy rainfall and stronger storms.
The Met Office expects particularly severe impacts in tropical regions, including South America and the western Pacific, where intense droughts are possible. Northwestern Europe, including the UK, could instead experience wetter and stormier conditions during autumn and winter.
The warning comes after major climate-related events around the world this year. Wildfires have affected more than 200,000 hectares in Indonesia, while fires in southwestern Europe have displaced at least 325,000 people in Spain and France. Several countries are also experiencing severe drought.
The Met Office further warned that, combined with human-caused climate change, the powerful El Niño could make 2027 very likely to become the hottest year ever recorded globally.
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